Ukraine Under The Threat of Russia

Ukraine is a target, Russia has the guns and President Putin’s finger is on the trigger.  Ukraine is no match for mighty Russia which has thousands of troops stationed on it’s border and is asking the US and Europe for help.  As I see it, the US, the UK and France all have a duty to defend Ukraine from foreign invasion in accordance with treaties signed in 1994 in which Ukraine gave up and destroyed all of their nuclear arsenal in return for guaranteed protection.

Americans fought in World War I because we were obligated and it was the right thing to do.  We fought in WW II because we were attacked, and were our allies, and because we were committed to preserving the liberties and sovereignty of our nation and that of our allies, so we fought, we won and we’re free.

I hope that we can get out of Iraq, Afghanistan and other places where we are not obligated, needed nor wanted.  I hope we will learn to stay out of civil conflicts like in Syria, Nigeria and Kyrgyzstan.  Even though it is a terrible and tragic war, it is a civil war, if there is such a thing as a “civil” war, and it is not our affair, nor is it a threat to us at this time.  We should remember our commitments and maintain the right to go to the defense of our allies should that become necessary, but otherwise, stay out of the fight.  However, we must always have the foresight to stave-off aggressions which may threaten our nation, that of our allies, our freedoms and ways of life or attacks violating treaties and promises we have made in the defense of others.

Now, we are on the verge of what could possibly escalate to World War III if we chose to do nothing.     We are now in a time of many internal conflicts;  A time of dallying, indecision, indifference, procrastination, weakness and certainly of, broken promises and deterioration of reputation abroad.
It is sad and disturbing when “Trust” in America by our allies is so lacking and that our “Weakness” encourages aggression directly against our allies and indirectly against or strategic positions in the world.

President Vladimir Putin has decided, following a successful Olympics, that the time is right to take advantage of our weaknesses and those of Europe and Ukraine, to threaten, occupy, annex and control parts of Ukraine.  Crimea (predominately Russian speaking and leaning) was an “easy take” by Russia, has been annexed and will remain part of Russia for the foreseeable future.  Crimea is a done deal and we should leave it alone, but defend the rest of Ukraine who wants to remain an independent, sovereign nation.

Russia may stop with acquisition of Crimea, or undeterred, the next steps could well be: Phase-2, occupation of the southeastern border area of Ukraine including Kharkiv, Lugansk, Donetsk, Mariupol and Melitopol;  Phase-3, incursion into the remaining southeastern 40% of Ukraine;  Phase-4, Odessa and the SW part of Ukraine;  Phase-5, the rest of Ukraine and Moldovia and Belarus;  and finally;  Phase-6, Occupation of the 3 Baltic nations, all members of NATO.  If that were to happen, World War III would be underway and we would be involved.  It will be far easier to stop any aggression now before it really gets started.

Putin has said that he has no intention of further invasion into Ukraine, but does he mean it?  Russia now has almost as many troops along the eastern border of Ukraine as we had at the peak of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.  This mobilization of 80,000+ Russian troops on Ukraine’s eastern border is not to deter protestors, it is a readiness for war.  We, the United States, the world leader and protector, needs to rally our European Allies, plus Canada, the UK, NZ, Australian and other allies to swiftly and aggressively convince President Putin and his supporting oligarchs to cease and desist any further actions to occupy more of Ukraine or any other nations who gained their independence after the 1991 demise of the Soviet Union.

THE QUESTION IS, WHY DO WE CARE?  What business is it of ours?  I will explain:  An overthrow of Ukraine’s sovereignty would be a “geo-political” change in the world and a dereliction or our “Duty.”  When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the newly independent Ukraine possessed the third largest strategic nuclear weapons arsenal in the world. It was larger than those of Britain, France and China combined.  Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in accordance with the Trilateral Agreement with the USA, the UK and Russia in 1994 (the only one who did) and ratified the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), whereby the USA, the UK and Russia agreed (simply put) to protect and defend Ukraine against intrusion by any other nation or outside force.  France and China later signed similar unilateral agreements.

SO, WHY DO WE CARE?  IT IS OUR DUTY.  The USA is at the lowest point of world respect in the history of our Nation.  If we fail in our duty to defend our ally and permit Russia to over-run and take control of the rest of Ukraine, the probability is that Russia will continue their aggressive drive to occupy Moldova, Belarus, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. 

Gaining easy access to deep, warm water ports in Ukraine, the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic and Indian Oceans is a big deal to Putin.  Vladivostok, Russia’s eastern port on the Pacific is about 4,000 miles as the crow flies or 5,600 road miles from Moscow, and so access through Ukraine to the Black Sea is economically and strategically a big deal to Russia. 

If we can stop Putin’s drive to reclaim Ukraine, it will lessen the chance of his marching into the Baltic’s and Poland, all NATO allies, which would commit us to war.  I hope President Obama and our Congress has the wisdom and courage to lead, gain European support, take preemptive action and avoid Russia’s attempt to rebuild what was the Soviet Empire.  Currently, our Congress has approved a $1 billion aid package, which effectively puts the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in charge of the Ukrainian economy and will increase regulation, raise energy prices and taxes and go toward bailing out banks and not toward the agencies and people who need it.  This plan is like giving money to a bank who promises to give it to a charity, who hopefully may give some of it to those who it was intended it for.  Surely we have some elected officials who have the wisdom to come up with a better plan and have the courage to implement it.  Otherwise, we are shirking our duty.

I’m not suggesting we get involved in Ukraine with “boots on the ground,” but I do think it is wise to promptly provide financial, humanitarian and military equipment and supplies to stop what could be a prolonged Russian drive to reclaim strategic areas lost when the Soviet Union fell.  Instead of the expense of destroying military equipment and supplies in Iraq and Afghanistan, or the expense of bringing it home, why not just give these assets to Ukraine to protect theirs.  If we can help stop a war before it gains momentum I think that is a “Win” for all of us.

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About the writer

I DON’T LIKE WAR !  I don’t appreciate unnecessary arguing for no purpose.  I don’t like violence, or suffer ignorance nor tolerate stupidity, at least not willingly.  I have been in positions helping strategize and plan for conflict and problem elimination, but I participated out of duty and not delight.

Over the past 25 years, I have worked either directly for, or as a contractor for our government or major contractors on massive military and commercial projects in 16 different countries and have been to over 44 countries on 6 of the 7 continents.  Having managed missions and projects, researched, prepared and written articles, briefs, plans and reports for the US and EU governments, and agencies and companies doing contract work in Russia and Ukraine, I feel that I have a good vision of the situation in those countries and accurate insights into what may possibly happen in the Ukraine.  A tactical and temporary pull-back of troops and easing of tensions now, does not preclude strategically planned future incursions toward rebuilding the old Soviet Russian Empire.



Currently, as a Synergistic Strategist, I gather intelligence, research and report on hot-spots, problems and solutions for agencies and companies around the world, and in doing so, I have a pretty accurate vision of what is happening in various parts of the world.  I don’t claim to be the expert on the current situation in Ukraine or on Russia’s intentions toward acquiring more Ukrainian territory, but I feel that I have a better understanding of the threat there than most Westerners do.  I have spent the past several years in Russia helping replace the old Weapon’s-Grade Plutonium Producing Plant in Zheleznogorsk with a new, safer plant and spent several months in Ukraine, seven times so far in the past five years.  I will go back to Ukraine again this summer, visit friends and several places throughout the country including Chernobyl and continue my contract investigation and report on the progress and status of the major project there.
 


I am submitting my article written yesterday, entitled, “Ukraine Under Threat from Russia,” in hopes that you may find it interesting and worthy of discussing, sharing and urging our president and members of congress to have the wisdom and courage to find ways to effectively stop Russia from further incursion into Ukraine or other sovereign nations.  We signed the treaty, we have the duty, and fullfilling it will at least shows the rest of the world that we “have their back” and are there to help when absolutely necessary.   I think that this issue, Russia’s threat against Ukraine (hopefully not) but may, dominate news in the future if we don’t act to stop it.  Posted:  140401 by Jeffress


Ukraine East-West Division

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ukraine's Infrastructure Map

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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