Ukraine’s Crimea Ceded to Russia Today.  Ukraine’s Loss is Russia’s Gain.  Where will it stop?

Today, Sunday, the World felt a quake in it’s geopolitical structure, economy and possibly security and more quakes are expected in the near future.  Unfortunately, there may be even more serious quakes in the next few months as Russia decides that the time is right to reacquire some of it’s old soviet territory lost in 1991.

Ukraine is a country of good people who have suffered under the control of a corrupt, self-serving, domineering government for many years since it gained semi-independence from Russia in 1991.  Today, the predominately Russian speaking people of Crimea voted in a referendum to join Russia.  To the dismay of the rest of Ukraine, also under great debt and the constant threat from Russia, they chose to return to the breast of Mother Russia to hopefully feed them and keep them warm and secure.  Whether the people of Crimea voted freely for promises made by, or under duress of threats from Russia is unimportant now.  The deed is done.

Unless Putin decides it is to his benefit to hold off on annexing Crimea this coming Friday for negotiation advantages, Crimea will become a new part of Russia, and will wait and see how the big bear treats her new cub.  What we do know is, that Russia now has gained control of a very strategic area and unencumbered access to a warm-water, deep-sea port on the Black Sea.  This is a big deal for Russia and may in the future reduce our’s and other’s dominance and even free access in area.  It is definitely a strategic gain for Russia.

The cession of Crimea today (already Monday in Ukraine) may well be only the first phase in Putin’s drive to reclaim more of Ukraine which is a significant bread-basket for Russia and has eleven pipelines crossing it supplying gas, etc, to Europe.  President Putin would like to gain easier access to Crimea without having to cross the Kertch Chanel, and gaining control of the eastern parts of Ukraine would be a definite plus for him.  This area would include Lugansk, Donetsk and Melitopol.  

It would be a much bigger gain for Russia, if even greater area (appx. 40%) of SE Ukraine could be annexed in the near future.  If you draw a line on a map (see below) from half-way between Sumy and Kharkov southwesterly to Mykolayiv and Kherson, you can easily see the area to the east and southeast (which I will call Phase-2) that could be the next area militarily occupied and annexed to Russia.

The city of Odessa, called the “Pearl on the Black Sea,” and the areas to the north and southwest could become Phase-3, IF the people there and the rest of Ukraine don’t diligently resist and fight if necessary to avoid being conquered by Mother Russia, giving them total access to the Black Sea and sequestering the rest of a then “land-locked” Ukraine.

If Ukraine, Europe and the USA, and possibly Canada and Australia, were to allow Russia to take control of this much of Ukraine without imposing serious sanctions and devastating penalties on his country, I think Putin’s next step (Phase-4) would be to try to take control of the rest of Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.  Putin would take great joy in his quest to restore Russia as an “empire” and not just a very big country.  

As an old Boy Scout, I still remember and believe the motto, “Be Prepared” and I hope that we Americans or our allies are prepared to help and that we have the vision to see what is happening in our world, and have the wisdom and courage, not only to stop Russia from becoming a dominant world power again, but that we may strengthen our own nation and ensure that our freedoms, our sovereignty and our way of life may be continued for our children, our grandchildren and their grandchildren, etc., etc.,…
Posted 140315, 2300 hrs by Jeffress

Ukraine Political Map

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